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Published: March 20, 2009
I think we’ve all read enough articles about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning on this website. Patriots fans argue their quarterback was better, and Colts fans argue their quarterback was better.
Well, obviously.
I thought I would take a look at each quarterback’s best regular season and break them down to see who performed better. This would put Peyton Manning and his 49 touchdowns in 2004 against Tom Brady and his 50 touchdowns in 2007.
Now, this isn’t a comparison of who is better overall in their career, but rather this one specific year.
It’s not just an evaluation of their touchdowns. It’s their entire game. It’s their supporting cast, defense, and leadership abilities. This is which quarterback you would rather have starting for your team. If you absolutely need a win, whom do you take: Manning in ’04 or Brady in ’07?
For the record, this is written by an Eagles fan. I could care less who is better. From my perspective, we play the Colts and Patriots once every four years, lose, and move to our next opponent. I have no bias toward either.
I looked at different criteria for my selection and I did this like the writers vote for MVP award—strictly regular season, no postseason performances included.
1. Which quarterback put up better stats?
The first thing you notice when evaluating two players is their respective stats. It’s what jumps out at you. And here they are for Manning in ’04 and Brady in ’07:
Manning: 336-497-4557-49-10-121.8
Brady: 398-578-4806-50-8-117.2
Manning threw 49 touchdown passes, eclipsing Dan Marino’s 20-year old single-season record, while also setting an NFL record with a 121.8 passer rating. Brady threw 50 touchdown passes, eclipsing Manning’s three-year old single-season record, while putting up the second-best passer rating in the history of the NFL.
Several key things jumped out at me immediately. First of all, it’s difficult to compare all their stats head-to-head, since Brady threw 81 more passes than Manning over the course of the season.
Second of all, Manning threw his 49 touchdown passes in only 15 games. He sat all of Week 17, except for the opening drive, in which he threw just two passes.
Manning leads Brady in touchdown percentage (9.9 to 8.7), yards per attempt (9.2 to 8.3), net yards per attempt (8.7 to 7.8), and overall passer rating (121.8 to 117.2).
I’ve heard a lot of NFL analysts say yards per attempt is the most important statistic among quarterbacks. Manning wins in yards per attempt and net yards per attempt, both by a pretty significant margin.
And as good as Brady’s season may have been, Manning holds the single-season record for passer rating.
Personally, my favorite statistics are touchdown to interception ratio and interception percentage. If your quarterback isn’t throwing interceptions, he’s doing his job well. Very well. And he’s going to keep his team in the game.
Brady leads Manning in completion percentage (68.9 to 67.6) and interception percentage (1.4 to 2.0).
Brady wins in TD to INT ratio by a decent amount. Brady posted a ratio of 6.25 to Manning’s 4.9. I can’t guarantee it, but I am virtually certain that Brady’s TD to INT ratio is the greatest in NFL history.
Brady also wins in interception percentage, with the 15th best performance in the history of football, and his plus-42 more touchdowns than interceptions is an NFL record.
The Verdict: I’ll give the edge in stats to Manning based on his passer rating and almost as many touchdowns with significantly fewer passes.
2. Which quarterback got the most out of their surrounding talent?
Each quarterback was blessed with tremendous receivers, an above average running game, and a dynamic offensive line.
Manning became the first quarterback in history to throw for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns to three different receivers: Marvin Harrison (1,113 yards and 15 TDs), Reggie Wayne (1,210 yards and 12 TDs), and Brandon Stokley (1,077 yards and 10 TDs). He also made viable targets out of RB Edgerrin James, TE Marcus Pollard, and TE Dallas Clark.
Few teams in history have ever had three legitimate receivers like the ’04 Colts.
Manning’s running game—primarily Edgerrin James—only ranked 15th in the NFL in rushing offense and 19th in total touchdowns, but there is no denying that James in ’04 was a stud. He made the Pro Bowl, ranked fourth in the league in rushing yards and third in total scrimmage yards, and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
To have James in the backfield took a lot of pressure off of Manning. Teams couldn’t come out in dime formations and force Manning to beat them throwing the ball because James could counter with a strong rushing attack.
Then again, I think Manning’s presence at quarterback may even be more of a reason for James’s success. Teams couldn’t get away with putting eight or nine men in the box because Manning would pass for 450 yards and four touchdowns.
As for the men protecting Manning, it’s difficult to judge a team’s offensive line, but the Colts have always been known for having one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL. In 2004, the Colts’ line—anchored by Pro Bowl left tackle Tarik Glenn and center Jeff Saturday—gave up the fewest sacks in the NFL.
What about Brady?
To solidify Brady’s receiving corps, the Patriots brought in three big playmaking receivers—Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Moss had always been one of the elite WRs in the NFL—maybe the best in the league over the last decade—but he had never before had a season like he had with Brady in ’07.
Moss gave the Pats the deep threat they had always lacked, hauling in 98 catches for 1,483 yards and an NFL-record 23 touchdowns. Welker put in one of the greatest seasons by any slot receiver in history, notching a league-best 112 catches for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns.
Stallworth caught 46 passes for 697 yards and three scores, and the Pats also had over 300 yards of production from Kevin Faulk, Ben Watson, and Jabar Gaffney. In his first season with a stud receiver, Brady showed the world exactly what he could do if surrounded with playmakers.
The only knock on Brady is that almost half of his touchdowns (46 percent) went to one receiver.
Or is that a knock?
Does it really matter whom he threw the touchdowns to, as long as he threw them? Let’s face it—that season, no defensive back wanted to cover Randy Moss. Brady turned Moss in ’07 into a better receiver than Harrison was in ’04. Moss in ’07 may have been better than any WR in any one season in football history.
Brady’s running game was 13th in the league—not much different than Manning’s—although the Pats’ running backs did finish fifth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
Again, it’s difficult to measure offensive lines, but Brady’s line in ’07 was widely considered the best unit in the NFL. All-Pro left tackle Matt Light was arguably the best lineman in football and was selected as Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP.
Left guard Logan Mankins and center Dan Koppen also earned Pro Bowl selections.
The Verdict: It’s close. Manning had three legit weapons at receiver—a Hall of Famer, a perennial Pro Bowler, and a career third-stringer he turned into a 1,000-yard receiver.
But so did Brady. He didn’t have three 1,000-yard receivers, but then again he easily could have. Manning’s top three receivers combined for exactly 3,400 yards. Brady’s top three receivers combined for 3,355 yards. Pretty much the same yardage for each quarterback.
I’ll give the edge to Brady; and it’s so close that I am tempted to change my mind. My reasoning: Brady turned Moss into the best one-season WR ever, better than even Jerry Rice in his best season.
He got the best year out of Wes Welker’s career. And Brady was so good that season, there were games he didn’t even need a running game. The Pats frequently implemented three, four, and even five-receiver sets, even on 3rd or 4th-and-short.
Manning’s record when his team didn’t produce a 100-yard rusher: 5-3
Brady’s record when his team didn’t produce a 100-yard rusher: 11-0
Whether his team could run the ball or not didn’t seem to phase Brady. He was incredible to watch that season.
Take the Week 14 game against Pittsburgh as an example. Brady’s running game combined for just 18 rushing yards against the NFL’s third-ranked rushing defense, so Brady took matters into his own hands.
Against the league’s third-ranked passing defense, he tossed for 399 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 34-13 win. It’s games like this one that give Brady the advantage.
3. Which quarterback received the least support from their defense?
I was shocked to realize just how much Manning was not helped by his defense. I knew the Colts didn’t have a great defense, but I was surprised to see the Colts finished 29th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense (351 points allowed).
Brady’s defense fared much better, finishing in the top 10 in both rushing and passing defense, while ranking fourth in total defense and scoring defense (274 points allowed). For the most part though, Brady’s defense never really had to bail him out.
The Pats put up 34 points in each of their first eight games and 20 or more points in every game of the season. Only four times did they fail to score 30 points. It really didn’t matter how the defense did, as long as they limited their opponents to under three or four touchdowns.
Even when the defense gave up 35 points as they did in Week 17 against the Giants, Brady still led the Patriots to 38 points. I get the feeling if the Pats had given up 45 points, Brady would have led the Patriots to 48 points. Bottom line is, he wasn’t going to lose the game.
The Colts scored 20 or more times in every game of the season that Manning played (not counting the season finale when Manning sat out the majority of the game).
Manning’s D didn’t help him out much, particularly in back-to-back games in the middle of the season when Manning threw for a combined 840 yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception, and led the Colts to 24 and 35 points.
His defense yielded 27 and 45 points and the Colts lost both games.
The Verdict: I have to give this to Manning. The bottom line is the Patriots’ defense ranked fourth in the league in total defense and scoring defense, compared to 29th and 19th for the Colts.
I can only imagine how much better Manning would have done with Brady’s defense. I highly doubt he would have led the Colts to a perfect regular season like Brady, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think his team could have gone 15-1 or 14-2.
4. Which quarterback played better against top 10 defenses? What about top five defenses?
Just to make it clear, I am basing the term “defense” on total yards allowed, not points allowed, simply because this has been the standard in the NFL for a long time.
Manning’s Colts played against just two top 10 defenses in ’04 and no top five defenses.
Week One – L 27-24 NE (ninth) – Manning: 16-29-256-2-1-93.5
Week 15 – W 20-10 BAL (sixth) – Manning: 20-33-249-1-0-94.1
In two games, Manning threw for over 500 total yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception. He posted virtually identical passer ratings, both very impressive against top 10 defenses. The Colts split the two games, averaging 22 points per contest.
Brady’s Patriots played against six top 10 defenses in ’07 and two top five defenses, including the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defense.
Week Eight – W 52-7 WAS (eighth) – Brady: 29-38-306-3-0-125.6
Week Nine – W 24-20 IND (third) – Brady: 21-32-255-3-2-95.2
Week 12 – W 31-28 PHI (10th) – Brady: 34-54-380-1-0-90.0
Week 13 – W 27-24 BAL (sixth) – Brady: 18-38-257-2-1-76.3
Week 14 – W 34-13 PIT (first) – Brady: 32-46-399-4-0-125.2
Week 17 – W 38-35 NYG (seventh) – Brady: 32-43-356-2-0-116.8
Brady played six of his games against top 10 defenses but it didn’t really seem to affect him, as he led the Patriots to a 6-0 record in those games, and threw for 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions. The Patriots averaged 34 points per game against top 10 defenses.
Against top five defenses, Brady won both games, throwing for seven touchdowns against just two interceptions.
Perhaps his finest performance came against the NFL’s No. 1 stingiest defense—the Pittsburgh Steelers—when Brady threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns while putting up 34 points against a defense that had given up just two total touchdowns in its previous three games.
The Verdict: Brady. By far. It really didn’t seem to matter who Brady was playing that season. He was on fire. It seemed like he could have played the Steel Curtain defense of the ’70s and still thrown for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and put up 30 points.
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